Rio Grande Valley and Texas Hispanic Voters Are Back in Play for Democrats, Analysts Say

By Max Mazoch

Reporting Texas

President Donald J. Trump carried the Rio Grande Valley in the 2024 presidential election along with 46% of the Latino vote nationwide — a record among Republican presidential candidates. Now, the Texas Democratic Party might have its best chance to win back the once reliably Democratic region and Latino voters, Texas political analysts say.

“I think the transformation in the Rio Grande Valley somewhat caught the Democratic Party of Texas by surprise,” University of Texas Rio Grande Valley political science professor Alvaro Corral said. “All of a sudden, the party has had to expend a lot of resources financially to fend off far more spending on the part of Republicans in the region.”

Experts say that politicians from both parties tend to view the Rio Grande Valley and its 92% Latino population as a “symbol” for the demographic’s voter base statewide that shifted Republican with Trump’s popularity, economic struggles after the Covid pandemic and Biden-era policies that saw spikes in immigrants.

Though Democrats may regain support among those Latino voters who drifted away and will be helped by an increasingly competitive Texas political environment, experts say, Democrats running in statewide races, such as Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, are still underdogs in November’s midterm and statewide elections.

“Democrats haven’t won an election here in over 30 years statewide,” University of Texas political science professor Joshua Blank said. “There are some necessary conditions for Democrats to be competitive that are not sufficient for them to win.”

Latino Voters Moved Away From Democrats 

For years, the Democratic Party found success in all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley — Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr and Willacy.

In the 2008 general election, Democratic nominee Barack Obama won all four counties, gaining 64% support in Cameron County to 84% in Starr. By 2020, though, the Democratic presidential candidate received only 52% in Starr and a high of 58% in Hidalgo.

But in 2024, all four counties voted in favor of Trump, with Hidalgo having the lowest voting percentage towards him with 51% and Starr having the highest with 58%.

The Rio Grande Valley is home to a predominantly Latino, working class population that struggled during the post-COVID economic challenges, Corral said, which led to “local angst towards the Biden administration.”

The increased prices of groceries, such as eggs, were a “shock to people” during the Biden administration, Corral said.

A rise of Latino support for conservative immigration policies also contributed to the Republican shift, political analysts say.

Biden-era immigration policies and increased number of encounters between Border Patrol and noncitizens along the Texas border with Mexico led to a backlash among significant numbers of Latino voters, particularly those living near the border, Corral said.

But “what was once viewed as president Trump’s strength, is quickly getting away from him,” Corral said.

Despite promises of a stronger economy, experts said, people are paying higher prices for basic goods like gasoline and are suffering through a stagnant job market under Trump’s tariffs and war in Iran. That has caused Latino voters to look back towards Democrats, experts say.

Additionally, Latino voters “who had been in favor of border control, even deporting criminals, didn’t think what was being done was what they been told,” Southern Methodist University political science professor Cal Jillson said.

These factors have caused Latino favorability for Trump to “steadily decline,” to historic levels in the “mid to high 30s,” University of Texas political science professor James Henson said.

Trump still serves as a reflection of voting behavior for the Republican Party despite his slightly loosened grip, Henson said.

Focus on the Valley 

From Talarico’s joint rallies with congressional candidate and Tejano music star Bobby Pulido to Trump’s visit to Corpus Christi, lawmakers from both sides of the political aisle are making their presence known in the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas.

Though the Rio Grande Valley makes up roughly 3.5% of the state’s population, Blank said recent visits by politicians are “symbolic” efforts to signal support towards Latino voters statewide.

But Latino voters in the Rio Grande Valley aren’t representative of statewide tendencies, Blank said.

“I think it’s potentially very misleading, given that the Hispanic population of Texas largely lives in and around the urban areas,” said Blank.

The Latino voter base in the Rio Grande Valley tends to lean more conservative than those in more urban parts of the state, Corral said. The outdoors and religious cultural factors lead to support for gun rights and pro-life stances, causing some “differences and disagreements with the Democratic party.”

Despite their historical voting patterns, Latino voters have not identified with the Democratic party the way other demographics have, University of Texas government professor Daron Shaw said.

“The Latino vote has always been more heterogeneous and more complex than people seem to want to admit,” Shaw said,

Blank agreed.

“It’s much more of a function of performance,” he said, “if they’re happy with the party in power, they tend to show more support for the party in power. If they’re unhappy with the party in power, they should just show more support for the out party.”

Statewide Races

The increased competition for Latino and Rio Grande voters comes as Texas has entered a more competitive statewide political environment than decades past.

However, experts said Democrats running in statewide elections, such as Talarico, still fight an uphill battle as they look to become the first statewide elected Democrat since 1994.

“Texas is a competitive state, but it’s not a swing state,” Blank said.

In the past, Republicans were expected to win statewide elections with a margin 8 to 15 points. As the state has become more competitive, the expected margin is now 2 to 10 points, Shaw said.

“That could bump beyond 10 points for a good (Republican) candidate, and can shrink down to two or three points for a good Democratic candidate,” Shaw said.

Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke came within three points of Republican Senator Ted Cruz in the 2018 senate race; both were strong candidates for their respective parities, Shaw said.

The Democratic Party’s increased competitiveness at the state level is due in part to the party having a candidate running in every legislative office in the state, Blank said.

“Because Texas is such a big, large, expensive state to campaign in, and even a great candidate leading the ticket can only be in one place at a time,” Blank said, “this is where a distributed army of campaigners is really helpful.”

It’s too early to tell how the “untested” Talarico will match up against the Republican Senate candidates, Jillson said.

“He’s only run for state legislative offices, but he seems to be a talented politician,” Jillson said. “If he doesn’t make any mistakes, he could run a good campaign.”

While Talarico has secured his candidacy, incumbent U.S. Sen.  John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton still have a primary runoff before the Republican nominee is decided.

It’s unclear how the Republican runoff will affect the general election, though traditional thought says divisive primaries hurt the party because it “creates wounds that need to be healed” and exhausts the donor base, Shaw said.

“If Cornyn wins, are the Paxton people really going to go knock door to door for Cornyn in the fall?” Shaw said.

But in an increasingly polarized political climate, Shaw said a competitive primary could “sharpen the skills of the winning candidate,” and could help Cornyn “emerge as a better candidate” if he is able to defeat Paxton.

The question for statewide Democrats is whether they can break even with Republican candidates in favorability,  Shaw said.

“I think that’s why people are looking at the possibility of a Talarico-Paxton race,” Shaw said. “If you presume a good Democratic year and a good Democratic candidate versus a suspect Republican candidate, you may be getting to the outer range of a good Democratic outcome.”

Paxton has positioned himself as a “hardcore MAGA Republican, but he has none of the benefits,” Shaw said. His unfavorability among Republicans, Democrats and Independents may make Cornyn the more favorable Republican.

Talarico “could run a good statewide race and close to Paxton, possibly even squeak by,”  Jillson said, “I think it’s more difficult to see Talarico beating Cornyn because Cornyn is less obnoxious than Paxton.”

Shaw said voter enthusiasm and a low voter turnout in the election may favor Democrats.

“Democrats are going to show up in Texas. They’re just going to. They want to vote against Trump,” Shaw said, “the question for me in terms of turnout is, are the Republicans going to show up? How enthusiastic are they to support the administration?”